Pandemic Simulations and Scenarios: 20 Reasons Why the U.S. Government Should Have Been Better Prepared for COVID-19

We’ve all been hearing about the shortage of N95 breather masks and ventilators and also about how the unemployment computers are crashing with the excessive loads of online claims. Considering all the knowledge our government has gained over the years on what to expect in a Pandemic, I found this lack of preparedness to be disturbing if not criminally negligent.

Let’s have a look over years at some of the reasons, warnings and chances the U.S. Government has had to prepare for this catastrophe:

In chronological order:

1) 2001  June 22-23   ‘Dark Winter‘ simulation (John Hopkins and Bloomberg School of Public Health) The Dark Winter exercise, held at Andrews AFB, Washington, DC, June 22-23, 2001, portrayed a fictional scenario depicting a covert smallpox attack on US citizens.


(From the website) About Dark Winter:

On June 22-23, 2001, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Bio-defense Studies, the ANSER Institute for Homeland Security, and the Oklahoma City National Memorial Institute for the Prevention Terrorism, hosted a senior-level war game examining the national security, intergovernmental, and information challenges of a biological attack on the American homeland. 

(About the simulation) With tensions rising in the Taiwan Straits, and a major crisis developing in Southwest Asia, a smallpox outbreak was confirmed by the CDC in Oklahoma City. During the thirteen days of the game, the disease spread to 25 states and 15 other countries. Fourteen participants and 60 observers witnessed terrorism/warfare in slow motion. Discussions, debates (some rather heated), and decisions focused on the public health response, lack of an adequate supply of smallpox vaccine, roles and missions of federal and state governments, civil liberties associated with quarantine and isolation, the role of DoD, and potential military responses to the anonymous attack. Additionally, a predictable 24/7 news cycle quickly developed that focused the nation and the world on the attack and response. Five representatives from the national press corps (including print and broadcast) participated in the game and conducted a lengthy press conference with the President.

Some of those present for Dark Winter:

Director of Central Intelligence: The Hon. R. James Woolsey

Secretary of Defense: The Hon. John White

Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff: General John Tilelli (USA, Ret.)

Secretary of Health & Human Services: The Hon. Margaret Hamburg

Secretary of State: The Hon. Frank Wisner

Attorney General: The Hon. George Terwilliger

Director, Federal Emergency Management Agency: Mr. Jerome Hauer

Director, Federal Bureau of Investigation: The Hon. William Sessions

2) 2001  July 23rd   House Hearing on Combating Terrorism: Federal Response to a Biological Weapons Attack, July 23, 2001 (Subjects of hearing were: Bio-terrorism, biological weapons and terrorism.)

Present at this hearing was the Honorable Sam Nunn, the former Senator from Georgia who played the part of the President in the simulation known as ‘Dark Winter’. The quote below was spoken publicly to the House Committee:

“I was honored to play the part of the President in the exercise Dark Winter . . You often don’t know what you don’t know until you’ve been tested. And it’s a lucky thing for the United States that, as the emergency broadcast network used to say, ‘this is just a test, this is not a real emergency.’ But Mr. Chairman, our lack of preparation is a real emergency.”-The Honorable Sam Nunn 

3) 2001  September 12th   Tripod II

Tripod II was a Bio-Warfare exercise scheduled to take place in New York City, one day after 9/11. The New York Department of Justice was one of the participants. (Likely never occurred because of 9/11)

According to Michael Ruppert [in his book titled ‘Crossing the Rubicon‘], ‘‘The ‘Tripod II,’ joint New York City-Department of Justice bio-warfare exercise, scheduled for Sept 12th, 2001 at New York’s Pier 29, and mentioned in testimony by former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani at the 9/11 Commission…”

4) 2002   SARS appears in China. SARS is a virus transmitted though droplets that enter the air when someone with the disease coughs, sneezes or talks. The outbreak starts in November of 2002 and ends by May of 2004.

atlantic storm

5) 2005  January 14th   Atlantic Storm (John Hopkins and Bloomberg School of Public Health) Atlantic Storm was authored and organized by the Center for Bio-security of UPMC (University of Pittsburgh Medical Center), the Center for Transatlantic Relations of Johns Hopkins University, and the Transatlantic Bio-security Network.

(from the webpage) “How would world leaders manage the catastrophe of a fast-moving global epidemic of deadly disease? Atlantic Storm was a ministerial table-top exercise convened on January 14, 2005 by the Center for Bio-security of the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, the Center for Transatlantic Relations of the Johns Hopkins University, and the Transatlantic Bio-security Network.”

From the Atlantic Storm ‘After Action Report’:

“The summit principals, who were all current or former senior government leaders, were challenged to address issues such as attaining situational awareness in the wake of a bio-attack, coping with scarcity of critical medical resources such as vaccine, deciding how to manage the movement of people across borders, and communicating with their publics. Atlantic Storm illustrated that much might be done in advance to minimize the illness and death, as well as the social, economic, and political disruption, that could be caused by an international epidemic, be it natural or the result of a bioterrorist attack. These lessons are especially timely given the growing concerns over the possibility of an avian influenza pandemic that would require an international response. However, international leaders cannot create the necessary response systems in the midst of a crisis. Medical, public health, and diplomatic response systems and critical medical resources (e.g., medicines and vaccines) must be in place before a bio-attack occurs or a pandemic emerges

6) 2009   USAID (U.S. Agency for International Development) launches Emerging Pandemic Threats Program (EPT-1) a 5-year program targeting “the early detection of new disease threats; enhanced ‘national-level’ preparedness and response capacities for their effective control; and a reduction in the risk of disease emergence by minimizing those practices and behaviors that trigger the ‘spill-over and spread’ of new pathogens from animal reservoirs to humans.”

7) 2009  April   H1N1 swine flu (WHO declares epidemic April 12th, 2009 ends by August of 2010)  Swine flu is spread by person-to-person contact by either touching surfaces contaminated by an infected person or by encountering droplets produced when a person is sneezing or coughing.

8) 2010 May   Rockefeller Foundation report: Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development(Lock Step scenario is of a global pandemic) (Judith Rodin (Rockefeller Foundation) gives keynote speech)

Excerpt from the ‘Lock Step’ Pandemic scenario:

“In 2012, the pandemic that the world had been anticipating for years finally hit. Unlike 2009’s HlNl, this new influenza strain — originating from wild geese — was extremely virulent and deadly. Even the most pandemic-prepared nations were quickly overwhelmed when the virus streaked around the world, infecting nearly 20 percent of the global population and killing 8 million in just seven months, the majority of them healthy young adults. The pandemic also had a deadly effect on economies: international mobility of both people and goods screeched to a halt, debilitating industries like tourism and breaking global supply chains. Even locally, normally bustling shops and office buildings sat empty for months, devoid of both employees and customers.”

 9) 2015  March 18th   “We’re not ready for the next Pandemic” (Bill Gates talk at TED conference)


10) 2015  June 22-26   Bio-Defense World Summit (Bethesda, Md)

From the website:

“Wrapping up its 5th year, CHI’s (Cambridge Healthtech Institute) Bio-defense World Summit brought together leaders from government, academia, and industry for compelling discussions and comprehensive coverage on pathogen detection, point-of-care, bio-surveillance, sample prep technologies, and bio recovery. Across three days of programming, attendees networked in the exhibit/poster hall, engaged in panel & round-table breakout discussions, and heard case studies by members of the bio-defense community: from technology providers to policy makers.”

11) 2016  June 27-30   Bio-Defense World Summit (Bethesda, Md)

12) 2017  January 10th   Pandemic Preparedness in the Next Administration (Georgetown University Center for Global Health Science and Security) (Anthony Fauci gives keynote speech predicting ‘surprise outbreak’. ( Note: Dr. Fauci is not only a key player in President Trump’s Coronavirus Task Force but he at one time served on the ‘Decade of Vaccines’ council of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.)

13) 2017  June 26-29   Bio-Defense World Summit (Bethesda, Md)

14) 2017, October The SPARS Pandemic (John Hopkins Center for Health Security)

“This is a hypothetical scenario designed to illustrate the public health risk communication challenges that could potentially emerge during a naturally occurring infectious disease outbreak requiring development and distribution of novel and/or investigational drugs, vaccines, therapeutics, or other medical countermeasures.”                                        (excerpt from the document linked above)


15) 2018  March   Emerging Pandemic Threats 2 is published (United States Agency for International Development) (USAID Report)


From EPT-2 webpage:

“EPT2 is focused on mitigating the impact of novel “high consequence pathogens” that originate in animals with a goal of enabling early detection of new disease threats, effectively controlling those threats, enhancing national-level preparedness in advance of outbreaks, and ultimately reducing the risk of these diseases emerging by minimizing human behaviors and practices that trigger the “spill over and spread” of new pathogens.” 

16) 2018  May 15th   Clade X Exercise (John Hopkins and Bloomberg School of Public Health)

(from the webpage) About Clade X:

“Clade X is a day-long pandemic tabletop exercise that simulated a series of National Security Council–convened meetings of 10 US government leaders, played by individuals prominent in the fields of national security or epidemic response.

Drawing from actual events, Clade X identified important policy issues and preparedness challenges that could be solved with sufficient political will and attention. These issues were designed in a narrative to engage and educate the participants and the audience.

Lessons learned were distilled and shared broadly following the exercise.”

“Faced with a rapidly evolving biological threat landscape, government leaders in the United States and abroad are eager to identify long-term policy commitments that will strengthen preparedness and mitigate risk. Clade X illustrated high-level strategic decisions and policies needed to prevent a severe pandemic or diminish its consequences should prevention fail.

Similar to findings from the Center’s two previous exercises, Dark Winter and Atlantic Storm, key takeaways from Clade X will educate senior leaders at the highest level of the US government, as well as members of the global policy and preparedness community and the general public. This is distinct from many other forms of tabletop exercises that test protocols or technical policies of a specific organization.

In addition, exercises like Clade X are a particularly effective way to help policymakers gain a fuller understanding of the urgent challenges they could face in a dynamic, real-world crisis.”


17) 2018  June 27-29   Bio-Defense World Summit (Bethesda, Md)

18) 2019  June 17-19   Bio-Defense World Summit (Bethesda, Md)

19) 2019 August 13-16 Crimson Contagion Simulation

(From Wikipedia) Crimson Contagion was a simulation administered by the Department of Health and Human Services from January to August 2019 that tested the capacity of the U.S. federal government and twelve U.S. states to respond to a severe influenza pandemic originating in China. The exercise involves a scenario in which tourists returning from China spread a respiratory virus in the United States, beginning in Chicago. In less than two months the virus had infected 110 million Americans, killing more than half a million. The report issued at the conclusion of the exercise outlines the government’s limited capacity to respond to a pandemic, with federal agencies lacking the funds, coordination, and resources to facilitate an effective response to the virus

(From NBC News) (The Scenario) A large-scale outbreak of novel influenza begins in China and quickly spreads, first detected in Chicago in the U.S. and grows to pandemic proportion by human-to-human contact.

Stockpiled vaccines, per the exercise, are not a direct match to contain the virus.

Involved in the national test were:

  • 19 federal agencies
  • 12 states
  • 74 local health departments
  • 87 hospitals

According to the report, officials at the National Security Council in the White House were briefed during the exercise.

Among the key findings:

  • Insufficient federal funding sources for a severe influenza pandemic
  • Confusion on how to apply the Defense Production Act
  • The current medical supply chain and production capacity could not meet the demand
  • Global manufacturing would be unable to meet the domestic demand for personal protective equipment and ancillary supplies

20) 2019  October 18th   Event 201 (Bill Melinda Gates, John Hopkins, World Economic Forum)

From the webpage: About Event 201

“Event 201 was a 3.5-hour pandemic tabletop exercise that simulated a series of dramatic, scenario-based facilitated discussions, confronting difficult, true-to-life dilemmas associated with response to a hypothetical, but scientifically plausible, pandemic. 15 global business, government, and public health leaders were players in the simulation exercise that highlighted unresolved real-world policy and economic issues that could be solved with sufficient political will, financial investment, and attention now and in the future.” 

Excerpt from the scenario: Event 201 simulates an outbreak of a novel zoonotic coronavirus transmitted from bats to pigs to people that eventually becomes efficiently transmissible from person to person, leading to a severe pandemic. The pathogen and the disease it causes are modeled largely on SARS, but it is more transmissible in the community setting by people with mild symptoms. 

Recommendations: The next severe pandemic will not only cause great illness and loss of life but could also trigger major cascading economic and societal consequences that could contribute greatly to global impact and suffering. The Event 201 pandemic exercise, conducted on October 18, 2019, vividly demonstrated a number of these important gaps in pandemic preparedness as well as some of the elements of the solutions between the public and private sectors that will be needed to fill them.”




Considering almost 20 years of simulations and exercises that were meant to prepare the United States for a Pandemic how is it that at no time did someone suggest or demand that warehouses be built around the country, in strategic locations, and filled with the supplies and resources (N95masks, PPE, ventilators, etc.) that would be needed for an outbreak of this magnitude?

Furthermore, considering the participation of the World Economic Forum in some of these simulations, and the fact that the ‘lock step’ scenario, the Event 201 scenario and others considered the economic ramifications of a pandemic how can it be that no measures were taken to beef-up computer systems that would be handling the obvious monumental burden of unemployment claims during a such a crisis?

It seems to me there are one of two possibilities of how we arrived at the point we now find ourselves with the COVID-19 Pandemic:

Possibility 1) Even though myriad Pandemic simulations were held over the years in an effort to be better prepared for a global outbreak, somehow the U.S. Government was so incredibly incompetent, forgetful, and/or lazy that action was never taken.

This possibility stretches the limits of credibility.

Possibility 2) The COVID-19 Pandemic was an orchestrated event, planned years in advance, likely by some if not all, of the ones who executed the simulations over the years. The lack of preparedness is intentional. It is by design. It aids in the acceleration and spread of the virus, ratcheting up the severity of the outbreak in order to justify the lock-downs that will implode the economy. Economic collapse resulting from a Pandemic will justify the new digital currency, mandatory vaccinations and other measures desired by the globalists.

Thanks for reading -HP

About hatrick penry

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Posted on April 9, 2020, in Coronavirus Pandemic and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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